Summary: Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents teamed with law enforcement agencies in Houston and seven other Texas cities have staged a major multiagency crackdown as part of the ongoing “Operation Community Shield”. Nearly 150 people were arrested, including 67 suspected gang members. Of this number an estimated 12 were members of MS-13.
Analysis: Operation Community Shield, which began in February 2005, is something Msthirteen.com has commented on before. It seems to be more of a program than an operation, because it’s unclear what the end state ICE is hoping to achieve or when they hope to achieve it. Instead it seems more like an ongoing program to team ICE agents with local law enforcement, who can’t normally deport detainees. In this way, when raids are executed, if there is insufficient evidence to prosecute based on gang activities, suspicious persons or the close associates and suspected gang members can still be deported. Thus far ICE reports to have arrested a total of 7,655 street gang members and associates as part of this program.
Video Illuminating How MS Members Rob Illegals Headed North.
Analysis: It is unclear which news organization produced this video. It's interesting because it focuses on one of the activities MS-13 uses to finance itself, robbing illegals headed north. Msthirteen.com reported on this phenomenon in the past, specifically the robbery gangs that prey on the Chiapas-Mayab rail line. This video focuses specifically on illegalls who fall prey to gangs while riding the north bound freight trains. It is an interesting look at a subject that until now hasn’t received much attention.
Update: Here is another video posted online, which shows a number of people aboard a train headed north.
Toronto
Police Disrupt A MS-13 Assassination Plot
Reuters : Lionel Perron : June 5th 2008
Link: http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAN0533595820080605 Summary:
22 pre-dawn raids in Toronto
have led to the arrest of 17 MS-13 members who were plotting to kill a corrections officer. Alternate reporting indicates that this action was
likely an attempt by this nascent clique to establish themselves. Toronto is thought to have about 200 MS-13 members
Video of a Zeta Recruitment Banner ABC News : April 2008
Analytical note: In this video, the Zetas have apparently solicited for recruits with military experience using a large banner posted on a pedestrian bridge. The banner features a number to call for interested parties. The exact date of this video is unclear but it was posted at the end of April. The video also shows a sizable number of Mexican security forces who were tasked to pull it down. This is clearly a demonstration of the Zetas large and growing power. One can’t help but wonder weather the intent of the banner was in fact to recruit, or to spread fear and create the perception that the Zetas are so powerful that they can recruit openly on public streets.
Zetas Forming Independent Cartel KRGV TV : May 20th 2008
Summary: Mexican media and Stratfor intelligence agency are reporting
the Zetas are becoming an independent drug cartel. The new cartel is an alliance
between Heriberto Lazcano, believed to be leader of the Zetas, and Arturo
Beltran-Levya, a former commander of the Sinaloa drug cartel. The U.S. Drug
Enforcement Agency says the Zetas can "beat any cartel currently known and
become a real national security problem for Mexico and the United
States."
Analysis: As you may know, for the past
several years the Zetas, former Mexican Special Forces turned Gulf Cartel
mercenaries, have been wreaking havoc along the US Mexican border. As
Msthirteen.com predicted, the
Zetas have finally realized that they need not subordinate themselves to a less
competent organization like the Gulf Cartel. This is definitely bad news for the
US, specifically the border communities of Laredo and Brownsville Texas. As reported
by Msthirteen.com in the past, members of MS-13 are sometimes hired as low level
operatives within the Zetas. The increasing scope of operations the Zetas will
now be undertaking may necessitate an increase in the recruitment of Central
American street gang members. Military prowess doesn’t necessarily always
transfer into business success, so I would expect the Zetas to have the same
types of purely business issues as other cartels. However, there sophisticated
special operations background will certainly help. It remains to be seen whether
this sophistication will trickle down into their newly developing distribution
networks.
MS-13 Emergent Intelligence? (Updated with Video) Tim Reed : Msthirteen.com : December 10th 2007
I read an interesting book recently. It was John Robb’s Brave New War. Overall, the book discusses what Robb calls, “open-source warfare” and focuses mostly on events in Iraq to demonstrate his points. The main point being, that new global, networked, tribes of entrepreneurs, Islamic extremists, criminals, technologists, and individuals now challenge the legitimacy of the nation state, and will ultimately force nation states to change from hierarchical organizations to dispersed networks. Those that don’t, he asserts, will become more and more obsolete.
An interesting sub-focus of his discussion was what is called,“emergent intelligence”, which is the type of intelligence that exists in a bee or ant colony. Put simply, emergent intelligence mean no group of bees is planning or directing the effort in a way most would intuitively recognize. However, the colony is built, supplied, and defended as if one of the individuals was planning it. This is facilitated by complex social interactions and stigmergy. Stigmergy is a biological term which means the use of environmental mechanisms for coordinating the work of independent actors. Robb cites as examples of this, such as ants using pheromones to mark a trail to food. Similarly, humans might use a web link to direct others to a source of information.
Within a highly complex, networked organization like an insurgency or gang these stigmergic information systems can become so complex that they produce emergent intelligence. In short, the intelligence of the whole becomes greater than the sum of its parts. Hence, though no one is an identifiable leader and there is no written standard operation procedure or line and block chart. The whole organization will pursue goals, adapt, innovate, and attack. Robb identifies several stigmergic information systems that have allowed to the Iraqi insurgency to display emergent intelligence. He cites, but doesn’t fully explain, 4 main types:
Marker based – these are signs left by insurgents for others. Robb uses the example of a successful insurgent attack reported by the media, which signals other insurgents to try that same type of attack. Another example could be that as insurgents search for new technology on the internet the useful finds are highly linked, and hence more insurgents find it, etc.
Sematechtonic – These are changes in the environment. Robb describes how increased security on a particular target set can act as a signal to potential attackers to select another target.
Quantitative – These are also changes in the environment. This describes how the size of the security force response provides information to the insurgents about the effectiveness of the attack.
Qualitative – This describes how information about the method, type, location, time, and target of an attack lead others to the most effective next steps.
Now that I’ve crudely described the stigmergic information systems exhibited by the Iraqi insurgency as reported by Robb. The question begs. Is there any stigmergic information systems associated with MS-13, which facilitate emergent intelligence?
We know that MS-13 is a complex organization. Probably not as complex or as dedicated as the Iraqi insurgency, but still amply complex. We know that they form cliques, which are primarily geographically based. We know that they use social networking sites like myspace.com. Within these sites, we know that inter-clique transfers of information take place. We know that they probably on some level are influenced by the media. Given this, are there stigmergics at play? Sorry, I haven’t determined that yet, or even determined the quantity of emergent intelligence MS-13 displays if any.
My purpose in focusing on emergent intelligence in this post is to highlight a new paradigm for conducting MS-13 analysis. In the past, me and others have analyzed MS-13 with only a loose network, or top down hierarchy in mind. Moving forward, I think it could be useful to keep these two models but add to them the emergent intelligence stigmergics. My first guess is that MS-13 probably exhibits a mixture of all three of these models depending on where you look.
Update: More on ant colonies and stigmergy from the Technology Entertainment Design (TED) Conference.
Summary and Analysis: "MS-13 operates in at least 42 states and the District of Columbia and has about 6,000-10,000 members nationwide."
This is a change from 2005 assessments, which reported MS-13 to be in about 31 states, with from 8,000 to 10,000 members. The difference in the numbers is likely a result of actual growth within in the gang, increased law enforcement awareness, and also changes in the methodology of how individual gang membership is accounted. For example, in past assessments they might have counted anyone who was arrested and claimed to be in MS-13. In this assessment, they might have counted those arrested and claimed to be in MS-13, and could be associated with a known clique. Anyway, the wide range of the assessed number makes me think that law enforcement really doesn’t have a great way of assessing their membership numbers, and rightly so. MS-13 doesn’t issue membership cards! In fact, they aren’t really an organization, which transitions nicely into the next part of the assessment.
"Right now, MS-13 has no official national leadership structure."
As yet undefined, emergent intelligence and stigmergic theories aside, MS-13 has no national leadership or organization. I would go so far as to say that they have no definitive organization at all. Law enforcement often describes them as being organized into cliques. However, I think this isn’t what defines them, because all humanity is organized into cliques, or cultural sub-units. I think the culture of their cliques is what defines them.
"MS-13 is growing at a moderate rate."
If you look at the geographic growth between the 2005 and 2008 assessments, 11 new sates were added. At this rate MS-13 will be in all 50 states within three years. This could slow with the collapse of the new home market, as many of the construction jobs are filled by Mexicans and Central Americans. In the past, the gangs have migrated and spread with these populations.
Comment: This is so cowardly. I agree with New Haven, Vietnam Vet Emery Linton... "If you guys really think you're bad, join the service, get in the action and see what it's really like". News Video:
